Sure, you see all the “measurables” and get enamored and your rational mind shuts off, just like during "Ladies Night" at that bar you frequent. At 6-4, 225, he’s a perfect red zone target. He’s the “number one” wide receiver on arguably the best passing offense in the league. But don’t get sucked in.
Anyone who owned him last year can tell you how debilitating it was for your “number one” wide receiver to not have a TD catch or 100+ yards until the seventh game of the year. For you non-mathematicians, that’s almost two months. And it was brutal and cost you victories.
Colston had seven TUDS but four of them came in two games. And as far as the red zone, teammate Lance Moore had “Moore” TUDS and yards inside the red zone. As a former Colston owner, having the “in game” touchdown highlight showing how the Saints scored, and presumably how Colston scored was especially depressing when it wasn’t Colston. So you rationalize it to yourself. “It’s only the second quarter- plenty of game time left for Colston to grab one. I’m good.”
For the value in which you could’ve grabbed Moore (who was undrafted in most leagues last year), you overpaid for Colston emotionally and production wise. The Saints love to spread it around and will continue to do so; don’t overpay for Colston this year.
What is a fantasy owner supposed to make of Ryan Mathews? If you had him last year, you invested a very high pick to get him. And what did you get on your return? Not much other than an ulcer, questioning each week whether he was healthy enough to start due to injury, which is worse than having a player out for the season due to injury.
In 2010 there was “Good Ryan” and “Bad Ryan”. “Good Ryan” produced when given the chance; in the seven games where he had 10+ carries he averaged 68 ypg, and 6 TD. Surprisingly, he led all NFL rookies in yards, ypc and rushing TD. But “Bad Ryan” is who makes us nervous, the guy who missed four games and had the most fumbles lost amongst NFL rookies. After a high ankle sprain in week two, Mathews only carried the ball 10+ times in six of the final 10 games he played in and never played at 100% after week one.
So what can we expect this year? According to Norv Turner, about 200-300 carries. For as late as he’s going in mock drafts, and considering the offense he plays in, taking him in the fifth round or beyond could ultimately look pretty smart.